Gold is the ultimate safe haven, for two simple reasons. First, its total above ground supply only grows 1.4% per year, no matter what anyone does (and even this rate of increase is starting to fall as production levels have peaked). Second, gold is final settlement for the payment of obligations; it is universally accepted as itself, in physical form, […]
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For nearly four months now, gold has been pressured lower by a rising dollar; the inverse correlation has been almost exact. Gold has dropped 5.2% from its January 25, 2018 close of $1362 to its May 16 close of $1291.50. Meanwhile, the US dollar index has risen 5.4% from this year’s low close of 88.50 on February 15, 2018 to […]
It now appears that the gold complex has successfully tested support. Gold held above $1305, the low for the year set on March 5th and above the psychologically important level of $1300. The GDX, the gold miners stock ETF, held above the December 2017 low of $21.25. No new lows support the potential for an upturn. Gold closed up $33 […]
Where is the gold bull market that we predicted would begin about now? Here is our broad-based overview. The financial markets continue to expect an aggressive Fed going forward with four—even five—rate hikes this year and a continuing shrinkage of its balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening). Given this, gold has held up pretty well, essentially range trading, but the gold stocks […]
Valentine’s Day celebrated around the world is a time to express love and appreciation to friends, family and significant others. Narrowing down its history, seems to be more difficult and varies from culture to culture.
Following Christmas the January economic lows seem to turn around this holiday of love. Many fail to realize the vast impact this holiday has on retailers, […]
As we have noted here before, we believe that financial markets have generated the biggest bubble in history. There are many supporting facts for this view, from extreme measures of market sentiment to prolonged record low volatility, unprecedented low interest rates, record levels of leverage and historic over-valuation.
The bulls will try to tell you that earnings, economic growth and low […]
Gold on the Move
Since bottoming on December 11, 2017 at $1242, gold has tacked on nearly $100 to its price. What’s going on?
Clearly, one reason for the move in gold is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The black line tracks the U.S. dollar index over the past two months while the gold line tracks the gold price. The dollar […]
Gold is up nine of the last 12 Januaries with an average gain of over 4% and the trend has continued in 2018 with gold reaching an intraday high of $1327 so far this year. From December 19 of last year, gold rose 10 trading days in a row. Is this another rally destined to disappoint investors or the resumption […]
The Big Picture for Gold
This is a very frustrating period for gold investors. Global financial and geopolitical risks appear to be very high but gold has not responded. Gold and gold stocks are range-trading and have been since early March of this year. Gold is in a roughly $150 range (about 15%) while the HUI, a gold stock index, is […]
Since the birth of bitcoin, one question has repeatedly grabbed headline: will bitcoin replace gold? Comparing the two is inevitable as both are forms of money that are not issued by government and both offer anonymity to their owners.
Three differences are immediately evident. Gold is more stable (up 12% this year) while bitcoin is much more volatile, up six-fold this […]